This morning I really wanted to dispatch some good news. Because as of yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain seemed to be leveling off. This would indicate that just past two weeks into lockdown, we were approaching the “peak,” a critical milestone toward reducing infection and “flattening the curve.”
This would be a best case scenario: because there can be a two week lag time from infection to illness, it takes a minimum of two weeks after physical and social distancing is introduced for the number of new cases to start diminishing.
But the news this morning seemed unequivocally bad. To wit:
- Spain reported its highest numbers yet from Monday to Tuesday– 849 deaths and 9422 new cases. These are not numbers anyone wants to see at this stage in lockdown.
- The New York Times ran a depressing video quoting Spanish nurses calling themselves Health Care Kamikazes. With health care workers comprising 14% of the cases in Spain and lack of masks and gowns, this might not be an exaggeration. At the convention center-turned-hospital in Madrid, a health care workers union is suing the government, saying workers don’t have enough protective gear.
- Fernando Simon, Spain’s health Emergency Chief, kind of like a younger but equally reassuring version of Dr. Fauci, has tested positive for the virus.
- Spain introduced a complete shutdown yesterday for two weeks, based on prediction that the number of critically ill patients would peak sometime this coming weekend and the ICUs were nearing saturation.
- The World Health Organization stated this morning that it didn’t think Spain’s measures were strong enough to control the epidemic.
I could go on, but I think that’s enough; if you need more, just go online and saturate yourself with bad news.
This last one was a zinger, though. What more can people do besides stay home? The central government has been calling the shots about everything from distribution of equipment to stay at home orders, and the regional governments are not happy. The Basque Government declared that it wanted authority over who could go to work and who had to stay home, a request denied by Madrid. Reports indicate that there is very little coordination between regions, which is too bad, because some are much harder hit than others.
However, while numbers themselves don’t lie, they don’t always tell the whole story. Any data set needs a lot of numbers to provide conclusions. So while the upward trend wasn’t good news, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the downward trend observed won’t hold overall.
Speaking of good news, which is so important to convey in these uncertain and crazy times, here’s some:
- Italy’s new cases dropped dramatically from Monday to Tuesday, the lowest number it has recorded since around March 18th. Again, like Spain, one data point doesn’t give you a definitive story, but if you look at the graph here of new cases, overall you can see a downward trend emerging.
- The rate of recovered cases in Spain is increasing
- In the Basque Country, officials are seeing a decreased tendency as well in a few markers– decreases in number of new cases and admissions to the ICUs and increases in the number of recoveries
Beyond statistics, though, what’s most stood out is the leadership exhibited at the national level. Crises leadership calls for calm, measured and honest information being passed on to the public. At no point has the Spanish Government tried to hide figures; in fact, the prime minister has been on television more than once these past few days warning viewers that it will get hard, that tough days are ahead. He’s also commended the populace for (mostly) following the rules and reducing movement in the country by 80%. All of that in contrast to he who shall not be named in another country across the ocean.
If the numbers of new cases starts to decrease this week, Spain will have done a great service to the world, demonstrating that a western democracy can impose measures that work to limit the spread of a pandemic. Unlike France and England and the US, people are not allowed to leave their homes here except for food or medicine.
From an economic standpoint, Spain has taken great measures to support everyone who has lost work, freezing loan payments and mortgages, protecting renters, extending interest free loans, prohibiting firings. And all that centralization of materials? That was done to ensure proportional distribution of resources across the country. Unlike again, a country that shall not be named, where states are having to compete for medical resources and one quarter of the first bailout package–500 billion dollars–went to corporations.
There are tons of holes to poke in how the Spanish government has responded–lack of equipment, faulty tests, late implementation of lockdown–and the numbers of health care workers infected should be a red flag to every other country.
But when the numbers are strong enough to tell a complete story, if Spain has succeeded in slowing the spread in the two-four week period thought to be needed, the world should be watching, and giving thanks.
